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Reality in the Raw
This final comment for the year was going
to be a brief but hearty review of our sector of the industry. After
all there was plenty to be glad about in 2000. But as I write, news
has come through of yet another accident, a Singapore Airlines B747
crashing in Taiwan, killing 81. Just a few months ago we saw the
sickening images of the Air France Concorde crashing at Paris.
And so once again our minds are focused on the issue of safety. The
subject is always paramount but it seems that we have to embrace
it and nurture it with greater vigour. With massive predictions of
growth in the industry, pressure on airlines to cut costs and shortages
of pilots and engineers, there are ever greater challenges ahead.
The doom scenario must not be allowed to spiral out of control.
Public concern at this frightening trend can to some degree be assessed
by the appearance of a new web site: amigoingdown.com. Though the
name may suggest otherwise, this is not a bad joke dreamed up by
some on-line entrepreneur (although it does take advertising). This
appears to be a serious site offering reassurance (of a kind) to
nervous passengers. (There is a facility for posting questions, so
I sent an email asking who operates the site and how many enquiries
they receive. As yet I have had no reply.)
We are told that the information presented on screen derives from
data published by the aviation authorities. Comfortingly it informs
visitors that flying is extremely safe; indeed statistics show us
that we would need to fly every day for 1,000 years before succumbing
to a fatal accident.
Larger aircraft, statistically, provide passengers with better survival
rates, and you can minimise risk further by choosing direct flights.
Since 70% of incidents in recent years have occurred during take-off
or landing, it follows that fewer take-offs and landings increase
your chances of a safe journey. Travellers are also encouraged to
take note of all that is presented to them by cabin crews prior to
take-off.
But the main attraction of this web site is a facility for checking
the potential risk of your next flight. It allows you to type in
your flight details -points of departure and destination, airline,
type of aircraft (if known), month of travel and it then processes
the information to give out a figure of risk.
I typed in a few 'typical' journeys in Europe and was pleased to
see that, statistically, my chances of surviving my hypothetical
flights were reassuringly high. London to Helsinki, for instance,
aboard a Finnair flight in November rendered a most comforting 1
in 87,658,683 risk. Actually, Amigoingdown.com puts it more bluntly:
"We estimate that your chance of dying on this trip are..."
it states baldly.
I typed in another fictitious journey, this time a domestic flight
within an Asian country by a local carrier. I was advised that the
statistics of accident for this particular journey were a more sobering
1 in 158,171, followed by the rider "That's really not that
good for this route."
It sounds like a game, doesn't it? But it's not; this is on-screen
reality in the raw. Are the travelling public now so inured to the
idea of a fatal accident that these issues can be couched in such
stark terms? Is the day soon approaching when we will be automatically
handed this type of statistic when booking a business trip or a holiday?
It's a worrying thought but our on-line existence is making it happen.
I don't want to be the harbinger of gloom and doom in this festive
season. The training sector knows perhaps better than anyone else
in the business how much attention is paid to promoting and teaching
safe practice. But it would be all too easy to become complacent
about it, and that could never be tolerated. See you in 2001.
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